DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

Texas Weather Tracker TV Alert

DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 77.7 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea tonight through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

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AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED

Texas Weather Tracker TV Alert

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea this evening through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

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DISTURBANCE HEADED FOR NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA

Texas Weather Tracker TV Alert

DISTURBANCE HEADED FOR NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 75.8 West. The system is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

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DISTURBANCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED… …STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT

Texas Weather Tracker TV Alert

DISTURBANCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED… …STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The system is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Texas Weather Tracker TV Alert

From the National Hurricane Center:

For the North Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on PotentialTropical Cyclone Two, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours high 90 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days high 90 percent.Western Gulf of Mexico:Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers andT-Storms associated with an area of low pressure near thesouthern coast of Texas are showing limited signs of organization.The disturbance is forecast to turn northward and move slowly inlandover southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of this systemis possible while the low remains over water and it could stillbecome a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland.Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible alongportions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For moreinformation about the potential for heavy rain, please see productsissued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force ReserveHurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbancethis afternoon, if it remains over water.* Formation chance through 48 hours medium 40 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days medium 40 percent.Western Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the WindwardIslands is producing disorganized showers and T-Storms. Anydevelopment of this system should be slow to occur while the wavemoves west-northwestward during the next day or two. The wave isforecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then overthe eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further developmentis unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.* Formation chance through 48 hours low 10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days low 10 percent.Forecaster D. Zelinsky