5:30 PM – Classic “screaming eagle” supercell now along I-20 just west of our viewing area. A tornado has been reported on the ground. Eastland and Stephens Counties, heads up on this storm over the next hour. Moving east at 30 mph.
5:25 PM – Tornado Watch for our western and northwestern counties until 11 PM. Currently includes Denton County. Expect Tarrant, Dallas, and Collin Counties to likely be added later this evening. Stay alert. -William
From William Cole: A TORNADO WATCH has been issued in the Weather Tracker TV DFW coverage area for the following counties in North Texas until 11:00 PM Tuesday. Cooke, Denton, Erath, Grayson, Hamilton, Hood, Jack, Montague, Palo Pinto, Parker, Somervell, Stephens, Wise & Young.
We’ll have Live severe weather coverage on the channel as needed. Be sure to download our free Weather Tracker TV DFW mobile app and add our Live channel to your Roku, Apple or Amazon Fire TV device.
Stay with William Cole and Weather Tracker TV Dallas – Fort Worth for continuing coverage, online, on our app and on TV. Let’s stay safe together.
Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread across the Metroplex tonight. Rain chances jump to near 90 percent, with storms most numerous this evening before tapering toward daybreak. It will stay mild and breezy overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s. A few storms could produce brief heavy downpours, especially east and southeast of Dallas–Fort Worth by early Wednesday.
Tomorrow starts unsettled with scattered showers and a few storms lingering through the morning. As a cold front pushes through in the afternoon, winds will shift to the north and become gusty, up to 30 mph. Temperatures will fall from the upper 70s into the upper 60s during the afternoon, marking a cooler and less humid finish to the day.
Wednesday night turns much cooler with clearing skies and lows in the low 40s. Sunshine returns Thursday with highs in the mid 60s. We’ll warm back into the upper 70s and lower 80s this weekend before another strong front arrives late Sunday, bringing a sharp cooldown into early next week.
Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds may impact travel through Wednesday.
Stay with William Cole & Weather Tracker TV.
Let’s stay safe together.
A Weather Watch is likely later today, as conditions become increasingly favorable for severe storm development across western North Texas and Oklahoma.
According to the latest guidance from the Storm Prediction Center, scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few hours along and east of a dryline stretching across the region. The atmosphere is already very unstable, with warm, humid air in place and dew points sitting in the mid to upper 60s.
That moisture combined with daytime heating is producing a highly energized atmosphere capable of supporting intense thunderstorms. Forecast data shows instability values exceeding 2500 J/kg, which is more than sufficient to support strong updrafts capable of producing severe weather.
Wind patterns in the atmosphere are also very supportive of supercell thunderstorms, which are rotating storms capable of producing the most dangerous types of severe weather. Wind shear values around 50 mph will help storms organize and rotate, while increasing low-level wind energy later this evening may further enhance the tornado threat.
Because of these ingredients, all modes of severe weather appear possible, including:
Very large hail, potentially destructive in the strongest storms
Damaging wind gusts
Tornadoes, including the possibility of a strong tornado
Another concern is the potential for extremely large hail, as the atmosphere contains steep temperature lapse rates and powerful upper-level winds approaching 100 mph. This combination can allow hailstones to grow very large before falling to the ground.
Storms will likely begin as isolated supercells during the late afternoon and early evening. As the night progresses, storms may begin to merge into a larger line or cluster of storms, which could continue producing damaging winds as it moves east.
Here’s a look at Live Temperatures across North Texas, MesoScan Radar and the Updated Forecast Map.
DFW TODAY Cloudy with a chance of showers. A slight chance of T-Storms this morning, then a chance of T-Storms this afternoon. Highs around 80. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. -William
The risk of severe weather returns to the region later this afternoon and continues through this evening and overnight. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes.
For much of the afternoon, we may see scattered showers across the area, but most of that activity should remain fairly light. The first storms to watch closely could develop around 4 PM near or just south of the Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex. While this early development is not expected to be the main round of storms, any storm that does form in this environment could quickly become severe, so it will be something to monitor closely during the late afternoon hours.
The main round of storms is expected to develop along the dryline in West Texas and the Big Country late this afternoon. Those storms will gradually organize and push east toward North Texas through the evening.
As this activity moves into our western counties early this evening, storms may initially be somewhat discrete or in broken line segments, which could allow a few supercells to develop. During this phase, the primary threats will be very large hail and the potential for a tornado or two. Some hailstones could be quite large, potentially up to baseball size, especially with the first storms entering western North Texas.
As the storms continue eastward through the evening, they will likely merge into a more organized squall line. When this happens, the severe threat will shift somewhat. Hail sizes should gradually decrease, though golf ball–sized hail will still be possible. At the same time, the damaging wind threat will increase, with gusts potentially reaching 60 to 70 mph.
Even within the line of storms, a brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out, especially along the leading edge of the squall line where quick QLCS-type tornadoes can sometimes develop.
The line of storms should move across much of North Texas late this evening into the overnight hours, gradually weakening as it pushes east of the I-35 corridor.
Make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings tonight, especially since some of the strongest storms could occur after sunset when people are settling in for the evening. -William
