Today’s Persistent Warmth and Dryness

North Texas can expect another day of unseasonably warm and dry conditions as high pressure remains firmly in control of the region’s weather. Afternoon highs will climb into the low 80s across the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.

Weak Front Stalls North of the Red River

A subtle disturbance sliding across the Southern Plains will nudge a weak cold front southward through Oklahoma this afternoon. However, this boundary will lose momentum and stall along the Red River by evening, never crossing into Texas. As a result, North Texas stays on the warm side of the front, with only a slight increase in high-level clouds possible late in the day. Winds will be noticeably lighter than yesterday; sustained speeds of 5-15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph out of the south-southeast.

Reduced Fire Danger in the Big Country

That reduction in wind, combined with slightly higher afternoon humidity west of I-35, will ease elevated fire-weather concerns across the Big Country. While cured grasses and low fuel moisture remain a risk, the combination of lighter winds and a brief uptick in relative humidity will keep the fire danger from reaching the elevated levels seen yesterday. Fire managers still urge caution with any outdoor burning or activities that could spark a wildfire.

Cold Front #1 Friday

The next notable change arrives Friday afternoon when a weak boundary slips in from the northwest. This shallow cold front will cross the Red River around midday and push through DFW by late afternoon, accompanied by a wind shift to the north at 10–15 mph. Temperatures Friday will top out in the low 80s before the front passes, then hold in the 70s through the evening. Importantly, this front will be moisture-starved; no rain is expected, and skies will remain mostly clear.

Saturday’s Stronger Cold Front

The main event comes Saturday as a much stronger cold front – backed by a vigorous upper-level trough digging across the Central Plains – sweeps through the region. The front is forecast to cross DFW later in the afternoon, bringing a sharp wind shift to the north-northwest with gusts of 25–35 mph. Overnight lows by Sunday night will dip into the mid-to-upper 30s, flirting with the first widespread freeze of the season for locations north and west of I-35. Like Friday’s front, Saturday’s system will also pass dry – no measurable precipitation is anticipated, though a few high-based showers can’t be entirely ruled out along the immediate front in far northeastern Texas.

Set Up:

A stubborn upper-level ridge anchored over the Southern Plains continues to dominate North Texas weather, suppressing cloud cover and precipitation while allowing daytime highs to climb well above seasonal norms. This ridge is reinforced by a downstream trough over the eastern U.S., creating a classic “omega block” that locks in the mild, dry conditions.

• Today (Tuesday): Mostly sunny with highs 78-82° across the Metroplex (DFW airport likely 78°).
• Wednesday–Friday: The ridge amplifies slightly, pushing highs into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will struggle to dip below 60°F in urban areas.

Weekend Cold Front: Sharp but Dry Transition

A vigorous shortwave trough digging into the Central Rockies late Friday will eject a surface cold front across North Texas Saturday night into early Sunday.

• Timing: Frontal passage between 10 PM Saturday and 4 AM Sunday (earliest in the northwest Metroplex, latest near Waco).
• Temperature Drop: Highs Saturday still reach 80–83°, but Sunday highs plummet to the low to mid 60s behind the front. Overnight lows Sunday night dip into the upper 30s northwest to mid-40s southeast.
• Wind Shift: Gusty north winds 20–30 mph Sunday will usher in the cooler airmass. Wind chills Sunday morning may briefly drop into the 30s.
• Precipitation: The front will be bone-dry. Models show zero QPF across the region as Gulf of America and Pacific moisture remain locked up.

Extended Dry Pattern (Days 6–10)

The upper ridge re-builds early next week, but a series of weak troughs will keep temperatures closer to seasonal levels (highs 68–78°F, lows 45–55°F).

• Rain Chances: Near zero through at least November 14. The Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day outlook keeps North Texas in the driest quartile for precipitation. Soil moisture continues to decline, with Keetch-Byram Drought Index values climbing above 600 in parts of the Big Country (west of Fort Worth).
• Fire Danger (Today): South winds 15–25 mph with gusts to 30 mph west of I-35 will combine with relative humidity values dropping to 25–30% this afternoon. Elevated fire danger extends from Stephenville to Mineral Wells to Bowie.

Bottom Line

Enjoy the bonus summer-like days through Saturday, but keep outdoor burning plans on hold west of Fort Worth. The brief taste of fall arrives Sunday, but the dry pattern shows no signs of breaking. Long-range ensembles hint at a potential pattern shift around November 15, but confidence remains low.