North Texas will be on the western edge of today’s severe weather setup, as a storm system moves out of the Panhandle and tracks east toward the ArkLaTex and Mid-South. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas east of North Texas in a **Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)** for severe storms. While the greater risk is just to our east, parts of eastern North Texas could see a few strong storms as this system organizes through the day.
The setup involves a disturbance in the upper atmosphere moving out of the Texas Panhandle this morning. At the same time, warm, humid air is spreading northward across East Texas and the ArkLaTex region. As lift from the upper-level system increases and moisture deepens, thunderstorms are expected to develop and grow into a cluster. The most organized storms are expected from late morning into the afternoon, primarily east of North Texas, but a few storms could clip our eastern counties before shifting farther east into Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
The main threats with any stronger storms will be **large hail and damaging wind gusts**. The atmosphere will have enough instability and wind shear to support strong updrafts capable of producing hail, especially in the earlier stages before storms merge into a line. As storms cluster together, pockets of strong straight-line winds will become the primary concern. The tornado threat appears low, but not completely zero, particularly with any isolated storms that can briefly rotate. Widespread flooding is not expected, but brief heavy downpours are possible under the strongest cells.
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