Set Up:
A stubborn upper-level ridge anchored over the Southern Plains continues to dominate North Texas weather, suppressing cloud cover and precipitation while allowing daytime highs to climb well above seasonal norms. This ridge is reinforced by a downstream trough over the eastern U.S., creating a classic “omega block” that locks in the mild, dry conditions.
- Today (Tuesday): Mostly sunny with highs 78-82° across the Metroplex (DFW airport likely 78°).
- Wednesday–Friday: The ridge amplifies slightly, pushing highs into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will struggle to dip below 60°F in urban areas.
Weekend Cold Front: Sharp but Dry Transition
A vigorous shortwave trough digging into the Central Rockies late Friday will eject a surface cold front across North Texas Saturday night into early Sunday.
- Timing: Frontal passage between 10 PM Saturday and 4 AM Sunday (earliest in the northwest Metroplex, latest near Waco).
- Temperature Drop: Highs Saturday still reach 80–83°, but Sunday highs plummet to the low to mid 60s behind the front. Overnight lows Sunday night dip into the upper 30s northwest to mid-40s southeast.
- Wind Shift: Gusty north winds 20–30 mph Sunday will usher in the cooler airmass. Wind chills Sunday morning may briefly drop into the 30s.
- Precipitation: The front will be bone-dry. Models show zero QPF across the region as Gulf of America and Pacific moisture remain locked up.
Extended Dry Pattern (Days 6–10)
The upper ridge re-builds early next week, but a series of weak troughs will keep temperatures closer to seasonal levels (highs 68–78°F, lows 45–55°F).
- Rain Chances: Near zero through at least November 14. The Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day outlook keeps North Texas in the driest quartile for precipitation. Soil moisture continues to decline, with Keetch-Byram Drought Index values climbing above 600 in parts of the Big Country (west of Fort Worth).
- Fire Danger (Today): South winds 15–25 mph with gusts to 30 mph west of I-35 will combine with relative humidity values dropping to 25–30% this afternoon. Elevated fire danger extends from Stephenville to Mineral Wells to Bowie.
Bottom Line
Enjoy the bonus summer-like days through Saturday, but keep outdoor burning plans on hold west of Fort Worth. The brief taste of fall arrives Sunday, but the dry pattern shows no signs of breaking. Long-range ensembles hint at a potential pattern shift around November 15, but confidence remains low.
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