Happy Friday, North Texas!
Rain and thunderstorms return to the forecast today and will linger through the first half of the weekend. Scattered showers are expected this morning, but rain coverage will increase through the afternoon as the atmosphere becomes more unstable. Thunderstorms will become more likely later in the day, especially into the late afternoon and evening hours.
Some of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to isolated flooding issues, particularly in low-lying areas and along roadways that are prone to flooding. If you encounter water over the road, remember to turn around and find an alternate route.
Severe weather is also a concern later this afternoon and tonight. A dryline will begin advancing eastward across North Texas while a strong upper-level storm system approaches from the west. This combination will provide the ingredients necessary for strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threats will be large hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts over 65 mph. While the tornado risk remains relatively low, it is not zero, and a tornado warning or two cannot be ruled out.
One limiting factor will be a capping inversion, which may initially suppress storm development. However, if that cap weakens or breaks during the late afternoon or evening hours, storms could rapidly intensify.
Rain and storm chances continue into Saturday, and periods of heavy rain remain possible. Much of the day could end up being a washout for parts of North Texas, especially if storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Severe weather may also redevelop, particularly south of the I-20 corridor, where hail and strong winds would again be the primary concerns.
We should catch a brief break in the activity on Sunday, but the overall weather pattern remains active. Another storm system is expected to move through early next week, bringing additional chances for rain and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.